INNsight articles by Peter Wittner, Interpharm Consultancy

I am planning to take a break from writing for INNsight for a couple of months, so I thought that it might be worthwhile to look back at what I have written over the last few months. The idea is to see whether my musings and occasional forecasts still seem correct with the benefit of hindsight!

With my first article “A passage to India?” I looked at the ever-growing presence of Indian companies in the generic market place and pointed out their increasing ability to manufacture GMP compliant products and create registration files. Their skill, I suggested “has led to some of the Indian generic producers deciding to create a presence for themselves in the West and so companies such as Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddys and Wockhardt to name just three have either set up US and European subsidiaries or bought into specific markets”

Nothing has changed here and, if anything, the Indian presence has continued to grow as smaller Indian firms have joined the buying spree started by their bigger competitors.

An article on “Generic Superheroes” followed and the same names that featured a year ago, Teva and Sandoz, continue to appear in the headlines. I contrasted their growth fuelled by acquisition with “the almost total absence from the international scene of any of the major US, domestic generic companies apart from IVAX.” This has changed slightly with Watson having made purchases in India and the US and Barr is now making a bid for Pliva. What I did not forecast was the sudden appearance of Actavis in the acquisition race.

On the other hand, I made the suggestion in that same article (which appeared in March 2005) that Teva might “leapfrog Sandoz by another takeover. One business area where this might occur is in Biogenerics, which is as yet an industry and indeed technology in its infancy….. the alternative area where it might be looking for further additions to its stable is a geographic one – perhaps in Asia.”. In May, there were reports that “Teva had announced informal plans to fully acquire Chinese biogenerics manufacturer Tianjin Hualida Biotechnology Pharmaceutical Co.”, so I think I can claim that prediction as a success, even if the transaction did not go through!

In another article, I looked at the European North: South divide in generics and quoted some statistics.  In 2004 the market share of generics by units was 4.4% in Italy, 5.4% in France and 7.1% in Spain and this situation still persists although there has been some growth.

A recent article in the French daily newspaper “Le Monde” reported that generics have certainly made progress, stating “the development of generics has allowed the sick funds to save 561 million Euros in 2005”. It added that “in 2007, thanks to these cheaper copies of brands, there should be a saving of 1 billion Euros” – an ambitious target.

The article, based on a press release from the French Sick Fund Association also pointed to increasing rates of generic penetration for some molecules – 77.3% for Amoxicillin, 71.2% for Paroxetine and 71.6% Simvastatin. Generics, it said, accounted for 10% by values and 15% by volume of all products covered by its reimbursement scheme in 2005.